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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–9 on winners spread MAE 10.3 35 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Southern @ Kentucky	+20.6	147.6	91%	64–76	✓
Texas Tech @ Tennessee	+2.7	142.6	63%	57–52	✗
Bucknell @ Princeton	+12.2	156.3	87%	69–82	✓
Furman @ Winthrop	+1.8	159.1	55%	80–85	✓
Old Dominion @ William & Mary	-3.4	128.7	33%	74–59	✓
North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina	+7.7	141.0	77%	71–82	✓
Massachusetts @ Northeastern	+3.4	143.7	64%	76–82	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ La Salle	+5.6	141.0	68%	55–81	✓
Navy @ George Mason	-0.3	132.0	43%	65–71	✗
Brown @ Merrimack	+1.5	124.3	51%	76–56	✗
UAlbany @ Yale	+12.1	139.3	87%	52–71	✓
Jacksonville @ Georgia	+2.5	130.9	56%	58–69	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida A&M	-2.2	141.0	39%	69–55	✓
Oakland @ Bowling Green	-5.0	145.3	27%	72–73	✗
Bradley @ Toledo	+7.9	142.6	77%	65–67	✓
Michigan @ Nebraska	-1.0	142.7	44%	102–67	✓
UTEP @ Kansas	+18.0	148.9	90%	52–78	✓
South Dakota @ Northern Colorado	+11.4	144.4	86%	69–74	✓
Charleston @ Tulane	+2.7	156.0	57%	86–72	✗
Temple @ Vanderbilt	+10.6	133.2	80%	72–68	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Missouri	+11.4	129.6	86%	44–72	✓
Belmont @ Saint Louis	+3.2	153.9	58%	64–59	✗
Duquesne @ DePaul	+14.4	150.8	87%	67–87	✓
Charlotte @ Arkansas	+15.8	152.6	89%	66–86	✓
Butler @ Oklahoma	+13.6	131.0	87%	66–62	✗
Loyola Marymount @ Tulsa	+5.3	143.8	70%	60–55	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Santa Clara	+16.7	140.0	89%	77–88	✓
North Dakota State @ Montana State	+11.4	140.3	86%	49–68	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ USC	+17.9	153.7	90%	68–80	✓
Boise State @ Cal State Northridge	-2.7	124.3	35%	74–48	✓
North Dakota @ California Baptist	+12.7	142.9	88%	71–89	✓
Villanova @ Syracuse	-11.5	153.8	17%	67–53	✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Asheville	-2.9	133.1	34%	78–73	✓
Coppin State @ George Washington	+3.0	139.2	61%	62–75	✓
Ball State @ Xavier	+16.5	149.6	89%	50–96	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.