Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +5 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -0.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -0.6 (+4.4) | 162.5 (+2.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -0.8 (+4.2) | 157.3 (+7.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -1.8 (+3.2) | 159.1 (+5.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -1.8 (+3.2) | 161.1 (+3.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | FUR 82 – 67 WIN |
| Dec 19, 2020 | WIN 87 – 71 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#165) | 5.0 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#164) | 1.91 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#171) | 2.51 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#151) | 0.588 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 19.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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