Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -450 JAX +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -2.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -2.3 (+8.7) | 128.0 (-1.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -1.9 (+9.1) | 130.4 (-3.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -2.5 (+8.5) | 130.9 (-3.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -3.8 (+7.2) | 126.4 (+0.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | UGA 102 – 56 JAX |
| Dec 5, 2020 | UGA 98 – 65 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#204) | 1.4 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#226) | 0.52 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#210) | 0.52 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#193) | 0.531 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 27.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 81.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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