Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | UNCA +300 UTC -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -8.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -7.4 (+2.4) | 133.9 (+17.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -2.9 (-2.1) | 133.1 (+17.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -3.9 (-1.1) | 132.5 (+18.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -4.8 (-0.2) | 131.9 (+19.1) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2021 | UTC 75 – 45 UNCA |
| Dec 17, 2020 | UTC 69 – 66 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#217) | 11.3 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#98) | 2.41 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#95) | 3.42 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#121) | 0.610 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 41.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 60.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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