Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -280 UNCA +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -14.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -10.5 (-7.5) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -13.1 (-10.1) | 144.3 (-9.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -13.3 (-10.3) | 144.7 (-9.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -13.7 (-10.7) | 145.0 (-10.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2021 | UTC 78 – 73 UNCA |
| Nov 14, 2021 | UTC 75 – 45 UNCA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-8 | 10-10 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 9-3 | 6-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#83) | -3.8 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#34) | -1.24 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#45) | -1.45 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#89) | 0.376 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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