Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -18.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +46 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -17.6 (+28.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -16.3 (+29.7) | 151.4 (-5.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -16.5 (+29.5) | 149.6 (-3.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -18.5 (+27.5) | 150.1 (-4.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -19.7 (+26.3) | 150.4 (-4.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 9-10 |
| Home | 16-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#38) | -2.3 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#12) | 0.32 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.70 (#14) | 0.28 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#9) | 0.519 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 41.9% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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