Betting Lines
| Spread | BRWN -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 119.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRWN +20 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | MRMK -1.1 (-21.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRWN -1.0 (-19.0) | 123.3 (+8.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -1.5 (-21.5) | 124.3 (+7.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -0.5 (-20.5) | 125.6 (+6.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRWN -0.3 (-19.7) | 127.8 (+4.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#242) | 0.1 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#263) | 0.11 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#276) | 0.36 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#282) | 0.504 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 27.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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