Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -17.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | USC -21.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -17.6 (-5.6) | 157.6 (-9.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -17.9 (-5.9) | 153.7 (-5.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -18.1 (-6.1) | 152.3 (-4.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -17.8 (-5.8) | 154.1 (-6.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#13) | 0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#5) | -1.28 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.96 (#12) | -1.47 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.704 (#3) | 0.412 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 43.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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