Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +5 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -6.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -5.8 (-10.8) | 139.9 (-24.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -4.5 (-9.5) | 136.9 (-21.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -5.3 (-10.3) | 143.8 (-28.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -5.4 (-10.4) | 143.8 (-28.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | LMU 76 – 64 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#214) | -3.8 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#209) | 0.17 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#177) | 0.06 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#245) | 0.513 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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