Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +28 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -16.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -17.2 (+10.8) | 129.5 (-13.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -11.4 (+16.6) | 129.6 (-13.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -12.4 (+15.6) | 127.6 (-11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -14.9 (+13.1) | 128.2 (-12.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-8 | 4-9 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 54.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#299) | -18.8 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#235) | -4.61 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#242) | -5.90 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#267) | 0.266 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 34.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 39.8% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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