Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -10.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.8 (-7.8) | 143.5 (-11.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -7.9 (-5.9) | 142.6 (-10.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.5 (-6.5) | 143.1 (-11.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -8.4 (-6.4) | 144.3 (-12.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2020 | BRAD 61 – 59 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#103) | -1.8 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#48) | -2.04 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#67) | -2.84 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#34) | 0.385 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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