Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -18.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -16.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -18.7 (+1.3) | 146.4 (+5.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -15.8 (+4.2) | 152.6 (-0.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -15.9 (+4.1) | 151.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -15.3 (+4.7) | 150.0 (+2.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#50) | -3.2 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#7) | 0.67 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.79 (#5) | -0.45 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#33) | 0.502 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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