Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | OU -16.7 (-20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -12.0 (-16.0) | 129.7 (-1.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -13.6 (-17.6) | 131.0 (-3.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OU -14.0 (-18.0) | 131.8 (-3.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -13.5 (-17.5) | 128.8 (-0.8) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#36) | -1.3 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#32) | -0.26 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#38) | -0.07 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#43) | 0.471 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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