Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +14 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -14.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-38.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -12.3 (-1.7) | 146.8 (-26.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -11.5 (-2.5) | 153.8 (-33.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -11.4 (-2.6) | 150.5 (-30.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -12.7 (-1.3) | 149.2 (-29.2) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#111) | 17.9 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#111) | 2.48 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#152) | 3.96 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#83) | 0.624 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 42.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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