Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | SLU -1.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (-34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -3.3 (-8.3) | 150.0 (-27.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -3.2 (-8.2) | 153.9 (-30.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -2.9 (-7.9) | 154.0 (-31.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -2.4 (-7.4) | 154.2 (-31.2) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#62) | 10.7 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#77) | 2.06 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#77) | 3.02 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#105) | 0.643 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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