Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -0.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -0.2 (+6.2) | 127.7 (+8.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -0.3 (+6.3) | 132.0 (+4.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.7 (+5.3) | 132.5 (+3.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.2 (+4.8) | 129.3 (+6.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 60.8 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#130) | 7.1 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#227) | 2.00 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#221) | 2.83 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#243) | 0.570 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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