Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +19 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -14.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -8.7 (+10.3) | 139.3 (-22.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -11.4 (+7.6) | 140.3 (-23.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -11.9 (+7.1) | 140.6 (-23.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -10.5 (+8.5) | 138.9 (-21.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#142) | -7.7 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#162) | -0.57 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#173) | -0.61 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#135) | 0.461 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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