Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +11 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -0.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -1.2 (-9.8) | 142.0 (+15.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -3.6 (-7.4) | 140.8 (+16.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -2.2 (-8.8) | 141.4 (+15.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.4 (-8.6) | 143.3 (+13.7) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2020 | UAPB 75 – 74 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-7 |
| Home | 5-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-17 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#338) | -7.2 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.89 (#338) | 0.47 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.41 (#342) | 0.42 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#230) | 0.501 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 19.8% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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