Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -1000 UAPB +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -20.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -12.0 (-13.0) | 140.9 (+8.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -11.1 (-12.1) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -9.3 (-10.3) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -11.6 (-12.6) | 140.4 (+8.6) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2021 | ARST 84 – 73 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-5 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#252) | -20.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#262) | -1.85 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#266) | -2.86 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#247) | 0.423 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 32.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 36.2% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 15.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 63.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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