Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +8 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -1.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -1.3 (-6.7) | 137.7 (+4.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -1.2 (-9.2) | 132.1 (+9.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -0.8 (-8.8) | 133.1 (+8.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -0.1 (-8.1) | 134.4 (+7.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MINN 76 – 73 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | MSU 73 – 51 MINN |
| Dec 5, 2024 | MSU 90 – 72 MINN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSU 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 7, 2024 | MINN 59 – 56 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#56) | 13.9 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#10) | 3.13 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.05 (#11) | 4.70 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.660 (#14) | 0.698 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 15.4% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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