Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +30 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -24.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -24.1 (+5.9) | 139.8 (+0.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -19.9 (+10.1) | 136.6 (+3.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -22.8 (+7.2) | 137.4 (+2.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -25.2 (+4.8) | 136.2 (+3.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2025 | FLA 104 – 64 UNF |
| Dec 21, 2024 | FLA 99 – 45 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#41) | -9.9 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#84) | -2.49 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#101) | -4.14 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#123) | 0.462 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 27.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 57.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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