Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Dunn-Oliver Acadome · December 9, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread SAM -5.0 Away covered
O/U 155.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALST win
Actual SAM +10 138 Lost
Massey SAM -1.7 (-8.3) — —
Massey Totals — 161.1 (-23.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 19% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 13% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SAM -1.9 (-8.1) 155.2 (-17.2) 29% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SAM -1.5 (-8.5) 155.3 (-17.3) 40% ✓
Baseline ML SAM -0.6 (-9.4) 154.9 (-16.9) 41% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SAM -0.9 (-9.1) 154.5 (-16.5) 35% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 23, 2023 SAM 99 – 67 ALST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALST SAM
Overall 9-21 21-11
Conference 8-10 10-8
Home 6-6 13-2
Away 3-15 5-8
Neutral 0-0 3-1
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak W2 L1
Avg Pts For 69.0 73.2
Avg Pts Against 75.6 74.4
Massey -8.4 (#306) -2.1 (#217)
Bradley-Terry -1.99 (#315) 0.34 (#153)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.87 (#316) 0.02 (#182)
RPI 0.400 (#311) 0.517 (#147)
Shooting & Four Factors ALST SAM
FG% 43.8% 41.4%
3PT% 32.6% 33.1%
REB / G 35.1 32.6
OREB / G 10.1 10.4
AST / TO 0.57 0.66
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.8% 50.0%
TOV% 25.3% 24.1%
ORB% 29.3% 30.8%
FT Rate 21.1% 25.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 54.7%
Opp TOV% 16.4% 21.4%
DRB% 64.5% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 25.4% 26.6%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.