Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -1.7 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -1.9 (-8.1) | 155.2 (-17.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.5 (-8.5) | 155.3 (-17.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.6 (-9.4) | 154.9 (-16.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.9 (-9.1) | 154.5 (-16.5) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2023 | SAM 99 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-15 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#306) | -2.1 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#315) | 0.34 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.87 (#316) | 0.02 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#311) | 0.517 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 25.3% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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