Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -1000 ALST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +32 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -3.0 (+29.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.5 (+23.5) | 149.6 (+16.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -4.9 (+27.1) | 146.3 (+19.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -4.9 (+27.1) | 147.7 (+18.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -4.0 (+28.0) | 152.4 (+13.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2021 | SAM 74 – 64 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 7-5 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#319) | -4.5 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#209) | -0.52 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#211) | -0.65 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#84) | 0.551 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.2% | 31.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 44.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.5% | 37.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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