Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -29.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -26.0 (-1.0) | 137.1 (-2.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -24.0 (+1.0) | 138.7 (-3.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -25.9 (-0.9) | 137.8 (-2.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -25.6 (-0.6) | 137.2 (-2.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-0 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-1 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 58.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#6) | -5.7 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#43) | -1.36 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#28) | -1.89 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#70) | 0.418 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.3% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 26.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.5% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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