Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +15 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -15.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -16.1 (-1.1) | 141.9 (+9.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -14.6 (+0.4) | 142.5 (+8.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -15.8 (-0.8) | 142.5 (+8.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -15.1 (-0.1) | 142.3 (+8.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#68) | -4.0 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#86) | -2.06 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#79) | -2.38 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#122) | 0.405 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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