Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -5.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -6.7 (-8.7) | 141.5 (+4.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -4.5 (-6.5) | 144.0 (+2.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -4.6 (-6.6) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -2.7 (-4.7) | 144.6 (+1.4) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 31-3 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 18-0 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 11-1 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#42) | 8.8 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#102) | 1.60 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#77) | 1.98 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#98) | 0.597 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 25.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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