Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +17 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -6.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -4.6 (+12.4) | 137.6 (+35.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -5.2 (+11.8) | 141.0 (+32.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -5.6 (+11.4) | 139.2 (+33.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -7.0 (+10.0) | 137.7 (+35.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#223) | -3.6 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#187) | -2.12 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#184) | -2.61 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#110) | 0.368 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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