Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -6.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -3.7 (-8.7) | 133.9 (+17.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -2.4 (-7.4) | 136.9 (+14.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -2.3 (-7.3) | 134.8 (+16.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -2.4 (-7.4) | 136.4 (+14.6) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#251) | -10.3 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#296) | -1.16 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#275) | -1.36 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#270) | 0.373 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.8% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 9.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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