Betting Lines
| Spread | VMI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +3 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -4.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -4.0 (-1.0) | 144.0 (-19.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -4.5 (-1.5) | 142.3 (-17.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -5.1 (-2.1) | 144.5 (-19.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -3.9 (-0.9) | 143.8 (-18.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2020 | GWEB 88 – 77 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#197) | -0.9 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#193) | -0.69 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#189) | -0.84 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#228) | 0.491 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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