Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -7.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -6.9 (+10.1) | 152.0 (-11.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -10.7 (+6.3) | 150.0 (-9.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -6.0 (+11.0) | 153.0 (-12.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -6.2 (+10.8) | 152.4 (-11.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2022 | PEPP 91 – 62 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-9 | 6-6 |
| Away | 0-13 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L7 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#284) | -9.2 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#252) | -2.20 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#255) | -3.13 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#249) | 0.398 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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