Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP -2000 ALST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +29 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -37.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -37.6 (-8.6) | 152.2 (+0.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -23.2 (+5.8) | 155.6 (-2.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -26.8 (+2.2) | 153.7 (-0.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -36.7 (-7.7) | 156.9 (-3.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | PEPP 79 – 62 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-8 | 5-5 |
| Away | 0-12 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#38) | -18.4 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#175) | -1.50 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#162) | -2.55 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#232) | 0.062 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 16.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.8% | 37.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 12.0% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 62.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 36.4% |
Game Analysis
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