Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | CONN -190 SBU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.5 (+2.5) | 141.8 (-3.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -7.1 (+2.9) | 145.8 (-7.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -7.5 (+2.5) | 145.0 (-7.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -7.3 (+2.7) | 145.3 (-7.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 12-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#11) | 4.6 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#29) | 2.24 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#20) | 2.78 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#72) | 0.562 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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