Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +31 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -18.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -14.8 (+16.2) | 160.4 (+6.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -13.5 (+17.5) | 158.9 (+8.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -14.5 (+16.5) | 160.0 (+7.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -14.6 (+16.4) | 160.8 (+6.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-16 |
| Home | 16-0 | 7-12 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#14) | -3.1 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#21) | -0.66 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#22) | -0.41 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#9) | 0.434 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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