Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UK -6.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -4.7 (+8.7) | 138.8 (-10.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -3.7 (+7.7) | 141.1 (-13.1) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -4.0 (+8.0) | 141.4 (-13.4) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.6 (+8.6) | 140.8 (-12.8) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2020 | ND 64 – 63 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-1 | 18-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.6 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#161) | 11.5 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#202) | 1.81 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#188) | 3.26 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#173) | 0.495 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 45.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 16.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 48.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 13.4% |
Game Analysis
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