Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | UK -350 ND +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -6.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -4.0 (-5.0) | 137.6 (-10.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -4.5 (-5.5) | 139.3 (-12.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -4.4 (-5.4) | 140.9 (-13.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.6 (-5.6) | 142.8 (-15.8) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | ND 66 – 62 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#146) | -0.3 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#234) | -0.89 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#219) | -1.03 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#203) | 0.471 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 44.1% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 25.3% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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