Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +7 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -4.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+37.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -4.0 (+11.0) | 139.4 (+35.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -3.5 (+10.5) | 139.6 (+35.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -2.6 (+9.6) | 140.1 (+34.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -3.1 (+10.1) | 138.4 (+36.6) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | APSU 77 – 76 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | APSU 102 – 83 UNF |
| Mar 3, 2025 | APSU 90 – 69 UNF |
| Jan 2, 2025 | APSU 97 – 89 UNF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | APSU 101 – 98 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#327) | -0.8 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#332) | 0.24 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.08 (#338) | -0.32 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#233) | 0.544 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 26.2% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 58.9% | 58.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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