Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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59–18 on winners spread MAE 8.3 77 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
App State @ Furman +9.5 147.5 81% 65–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Tennessee State +9.1 120.0 80% 44–70 ✓
Vermont @ Brown +3.2 124.6 61% 70–65 ✗
Army @ NJIT +6.9 139.3 74% 66–49 ✗
High Point @ South Carolina State -4.5 146.1 34% 66–67 ✗
Green Bay @ Kansas City +11.6 127.5 85% 55–64 ✓
Murray State @ Memphis +4.7 144.3 67% 74–72 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Vanderbilt -4.2 131.5 35% 69–58 ✓
DePaul @ Louisville +5.1 147.4 68% 62–55 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ North Dakota State +6.0 121.1 71% 54–68 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Boise State +18.0 142.5 95% 60–97 ✓
Milwaukee @ Colorado +15.8 131.3 92% 54–65 ✓
Nebraska @ Auburn +20.6 159.2 97% 68–99 ✓
Wisconsin @ Ohio State +3.3 140.3 62% 55–73 ✓
BYU @ Creighton -9.1 137.9 20% 71–83 ✗
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech +13.1 151.0 88% 69–78 ✓
Syracuse @ Georgetown +0.6 165.1 52% 75–79 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Delaware State -4.4 133.6 34% 75–61 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.4 155.0 62% 65–78 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ VMI +4.6 143.8 66% 61–64 ✓
Charlotte @ Valparaiso +7.0 138.7 74% 68–67 ✗
Temple @ Saint Joseph's +3.0 140.9 61% 49–68 ✓
New Hampshire @ Duquesne -0.9 132.0 47% 62–64 ✗
Florida International @ Eastern Michigan +3.0 140.9 61% 88–92 ✓
Western Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +13.8 147.4 90% 64–83 ✓
Arkansas @ Oklahoma +0.0 145.4 50% 66–88 ✓
Penn State @ Michigan State +13.2 124.2 88% 64–80 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Mercer +1.5 130.6 55% 68–77 ✓
Troy @ Tennessee Tech +9.7 141.1 81% 75–72 ✗
Princeton @ Lafayette -5.4 148.1 31% 84–73 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Western Carolina +2.6 144.7 59% 73–72 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Providence +26.7 137.2 99% 53–68 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UCF +15.8 139.4 92% 68–83 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Tulsa +0.3 123.2 51% 65–69 ✓
Mississippi State @ Colorado State +1.1 152.4 54% 63–66 ✓
Pennsylvania @ La Salle +3.0 145.8 61% 74–76 ✓
Drake @ Clemson +0.1 139.4 50% 80–90 ✓
Austin Peay @ North Florida -3.6 137.3 37% 84–91 ✗
Eastern Washington @ North Dakota -10.0 157.1 18% 76–60 ✓
Maine @ Quinnipiac +22.0 138.4 98% 47–73 ✓
Siena @ Holy Cross -0.1 132.8 50% 72–59 ✓
Canisius @ Youngstown State +11.5 147.0 85% 43–71 ✓
Ohio @ Stetson -5.3 135.0 31% 55–45 ✓
Morgan State @ Longwood +15.6 139.2 92% 55–94 ✓
Hartford @ UNLV +5.8 138.4 70% 78–95 ✓
South Dakota State @ Washington State +9.2 160.7 80% 77–74 ✗
Lamar @ UT Arlington +7.7 142.6 76% 47–56 ✓
Illinois State @ Chicago State +1.1 149.6 54% 81–71 ✗
Towson @ Coppin State -7.7 139.8 24% 89–75 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Jacksonville +11.1 111.5 84% 48–77 ✓
Missouri @ Kansas +28.6 147.4 100% 65–102 ✓
Grambling @ Incarnate Word +0.3 140.6 51% 62–72 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ UConn +10.1 146.8 82% 64–74 ✓
Morehead State @ East Tennessee State +4.8 123.8 67% 75–82 ✓
American University @ Mount St. Mary's +8.8 138.7 79% 72–66 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Butler +24.0 114.0 99% 54–66 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Missouri State +13.0 158.2 88% 60–69 ✓
UTSA @ Sam Houston +5.2 135.4 68% 78–73 ✗
Pacific @ San José State +2.9 126.9 61% 66–78 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Tennessee +23.3 130.4 98% 36–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ South Dakota +3.5 135.6 62% 71–76 ✓
North Texas @ Massachusetts -3.3 139.9 38% 66–57 ✓
UIC @ Central Michigan -5.3 148.3 32% 71–67 ✓
Arizona @ Illinois -9.3 155.7 20% 83–79 ✓
Arkansas State @ Mississippi Valley State -12.4 147.1 13% 82–77 ✓
Boston College @ Saint Louis +7.7 137.0 76% 68–79 ✓
Manhattan @ Utah +16.4 144.5 93% 62–96 ✓
Kentucky @ Notre Dame -5.5 142.1 31% 62–66 ✗
LSU @ Georgia Tech -16.2 134.7 7% 69–53 ✓
Alabama State @ Pepperdine +7.6 155.7 75% 62–79 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Saint Mary's +8.4 126.4 78% 59–80 ✓
Toledo @ Richmond +7.4 151.5 75% 69–72 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Southern +7.2 141.8 74% 66–72 ✓
Boston University @ Dartmouth -1.2 133.4 46% 65–62 ✓
TCU @ Texas A&M +1.1 125.7 54% 68–64 ✗
Bryant @ Stony Brook +8.2 145.4 77% 78–86 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan +8.1 132.8 77% 75–65 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.