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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
54–16 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
70 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-8.8 | 153.5 | 29% | 66–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.4 | 152.6 | 25% | 70–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.8 | 135.8 | 40% | 70–53 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.5 | 137.8 | 21% | 78–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 146.3 | 59% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.6 | 139.8 | 88% | 59–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 136.8 | 42% | 66–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 142.3 | 65% | 50–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 149.3 | 87% | 55–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 137.5 | 56% | 58–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 138.6 | 57% | 64–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 136.9 | 75% | 61–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 126.6 | 70% | 47–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 137.8 | 82% | 66–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.4 | 154.4 | 91% | 68–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 135.8 | 58% | 68–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 138.4 | 34% | 91–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 140.0 | 33% | 82–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 128.9 | 63% | 65–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.0 | 137.2 | 27% | 76–86 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 131.2 | 42% | 75–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 132.2 | 72% | 48–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.2 | 142.5 | 86% | 81–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.1 | 145.4 | 85% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 128.9 | 71% | 49–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 136.8 | 75% | 85–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 149.9 | 87% | 59–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 140.2 | 61% | 71–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 136.9 | 71% | 47–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 128.0 | 67% | 71–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 132.3 | 73% | 60–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 124.5 | 55% | 55–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 134.8 | 80% | 77–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 142.5 | 31% | 69–53 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 128.6 | 36% | 62–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 146.4 | 30% | 57–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 141.2 | 46% | 68–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 136.6 | 59% | 61–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.8 | 144.7 | 88% | 58–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 135.2 | 25% | 69–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 145.3 | 41% | 66–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.3 | 144.1 | 82% | 63–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 136.4 | 56% | 63–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.5 | 142.1 | 88% | 58–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.3 | 133.9 | 19% | 84–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 150.5 | 75% | 66–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 132.2 | 59% | 67–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.4 | 147.1 | 79% | 60–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 138.2 | 81% | 53–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 134.9 | 63% | 92–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 141.8 | 84% | 50–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 127.7 | 58% | 56–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 134.9 | 59% | 67–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 138.9 | 83% | 75–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 139.1 | 71% | 62–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 149.8 | 68% | 101–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 129.1 | 56% | 56–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 140.1 | 40% | 46–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 142.8 | 49% | 70–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 144.2 | 61% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 143.7 | 65% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.6 | 136.6 | 26% | 70–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 141.6 | 66% | 71–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 137.8 | 82% | 60–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.6 | 137.0 | 86% | 54–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 135.0 | 54% | 66–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 146.1 | 64% | 77–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 137.2 | 49% | 78–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 145.7 | 57% | 79–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 135.2 | 68% | 63–61 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.