Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MER -150 FAIR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | MER -1.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.8 (+1.2) | 142.3 (-24.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.4 (+1.6) | 137.5 (-19.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -0.5 (+1.5) | 142.2 (-24.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.9 (+1.1) | 142.5 (-24.5) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#200) | -2.5 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#281) | 0.25 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#254) | 0.12 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#289) | 0.467 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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