Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -250 PORT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +1 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -1.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -1.8 (-0.8) | 146.0 (+9.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -3.0 (-2.0) | 146.1 (+8.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -1.3 (-0.3) | 145.3 (+9.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.2 (-0.2) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#65) | 6.1 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#102) | 0.81 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#78) | 1.55 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#93) | 0.526 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 36.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.