Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -138 HARV +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -7.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -5.8 (+2.2) | 134.7 (-6.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -4.8 (+3.2) | 132.3 (-4.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -6.7 (+1.3) | 134.0 (-6.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -5.3 (+2.7) | 134.7 (-6.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 14-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 18-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#207) | -2.2 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#124) | 1.08 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#134) | 0.72 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#139) | 0.523 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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