Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MER +188 TOW -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -5.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -4.2 (-5.8) | 138.2 (-8.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -5.6 (-4.4) | 136.6 (-6.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -4.6 (-5.4) | 139.2 (-9.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -4.0 (-6.0) | 139.3 (-9.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#200) | 4.9 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#281) | 3.06 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#254) | 4.41 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#289) | 0.576 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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