Betting Lines
| Spread | LBSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UVM +110 LBSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LBSU +20 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | LBSU -0.7 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LBSU -0.3 (-19.7) | 139.2 (-3.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LBSU -0.8 (-19.2) | 137.2 (-1.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LBSU -0.1 (-19.9) | 138.5 (-2.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LBSU -0.5 (-19.5) | 138.7 (-2.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#222) | -1.7 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#187) | -0.21 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#151) | -0.03 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#210) | 0.467 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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