Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -120 UNC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +2 | 204 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -7.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+51.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.8 (-2.8) | 151.1 (+52.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.2 (-2.2) | 149.8 (+54.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -4.3 (-2.3) | 152.2 (+51.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -4.1 (-2.1) | 151.1 (+52.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | ALA 94 – 79 UNC |
| Mar 29, 2024 | ALA 89 – 87 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#7) | 10.2 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#39) | 2.69 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#26) | 4.39 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#39) | 0.681 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 49.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 16.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 42.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 35.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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