The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
(1) North Carolina Tar Heels
87 89
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide
crypto.com Arena (Neutral) · March 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -4.5 Away covered
O/U 174.5 Over
Money UNC -200 / ALA +155
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual ALA +2 176 Lost
Massey UNC -0.5 (-2.5)
Massey Totals 172.3 (+3.7)
Bradley-Terry 65%
Weighted B-T 71%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -3.5 (-5.5) 170.1 (+5.9) 51%
Model 4 ML UNC -1.6 (-3.6) 173.6 (+2.4) 46%
Model 3 ML UNC -4.1 (-6.1) 168.6 (+7.4) 62%
Baseline ML UNC -4.2 (-6.2) 169.8 (+6.2) 52%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 5, 2024 ALA 9479 UNC
Nov 27, 2022 ALA 103101 UNC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC ALA
Overall 29-8 25-12
Conference 17-3 13-5
Home 14-1 14-2
Away 8-2 5-5
Neutral 7-5 6-5
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 81.9 90.1
Avg Pts Against 70.5 81.2
Massey 18.9 (#8) 18.4 (#10)
Bradley-Terry 3.08 (#4) 2.47 (#16)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.97 (#4) 3.05 (#16)
RPI 0.621 (#8) 0.621 (#9)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC ALA
FG% 45.3% 47.7%
3PT% 35.8% 36.7%
REB / G 40.9 39.7
OREB / G 11.9 12.7
AST / TO 1.42 1.34
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.7% 56.3%
TOV% 14.2% 15.9%
ORB% 32.5% 34.9%
FT Rate 27.8% 27.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.5% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 14.8% 15.6%
DRB% 76.8% 69.7%
Opp FT Rate 20.9% 29.7%

Game Analysis

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