Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 174.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -200 ALA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +2 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -0.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.3 (-4.3) | 171.4 (+4.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -0.6 (-2.6) | 170.9 (+5.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.0 (-4.0) | 169.2 (+6.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.1 (-4.1) | 170.2 (+5.8) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | ALA 94 – 79 UNC |
| Nov 27, 2022 | ALA 103 – 101 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#8) | 18.4 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#4) | 2.47 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#4) | 3.05 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#8) | 0.621 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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