Taking a bite on a biscuit, the record jumps on a scratch. "If I Didn't Love You" - Squeeze
North Carolina Tar Heels
79 94
FINAL SEC/ACC Men's Challenge
Alabama Crimson Tide
Dean E. Smith Center · December 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -1.5 Away covered
O/U 175.5 Under
Money UNC -125 / ALA +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual ALA +15 173 Lost
Massey UNC -4.2 (-19.2)
Massey Totals 186.0 (-13.0)
Bradley-Terry 56%
Weighted B-T 48%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -0.6 (-15.6) 175.2 (-2.2) 47%
Model 4 ML UNC -2.6 (-17.6) 173.1 (-0.1) 48%
Model 3 ML UNC -4.0 (-19.0) 168.2 (+4.8) 66%
Baseline ML UNC -5.4 (-20.4) 171.7 (+1.3) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 29, 2024 ALA 8987 UNC
Nov 27, 2022 ALA 103101 UNC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC ALA
Overall 23-14 28-9
Conference 13-7 13-5
Home 12-3 12-3
Away 6-6 9-3
Neutral 5-5 7-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.7 90.7
Avg Pts Against 74.7 81.3
Massey 15.9 (#18) 16.8 (#15)
Bradley-Terry 2.20 (#45) 2.87 (#24)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.49 (#42) 4.60 (#20)
RPI 0.676 (#14) 0.697 (#8)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC ALA
FG% 47.9% 47.0%
3PT% 37.7% 32.6%
REB / G 36.9 43.8
OREB / G 9.0 13.4
AST / TO 1.52 1.39
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.6% 54.8%
TOV% 12.6% 17.0%
ORB% 25.9% 35.4%
FT Rate 34.2% 33.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.2% 45.5%
Opp TOV% 14.6% 13.2%
DRB% 72.0% 71.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.8% 27.6%

Game Analysis

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