Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -125 ALA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +15 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -4.2 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 186.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -0.6 (-15.6) | 175.2 (-2.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UNC -2.6 (-17.6) | 173.1 (-0.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UNC -4.0 (-19.0) | 168.2 (+4.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -5.4 (-20.4) | 171.7 (+1.3) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 29, 2024 | ALA 89 – 87 UNC |
| Nov 27, 2022 | ALA 103 – 101 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#18) | 16.8 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#45) | 2.87 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#42) | 4.60 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.676 (#14) | 0.697 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 43.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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