Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -175 SEMO +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -0.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -0.3 (+2.3) | 142.9 (+1.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -2.4 (-0.4) | 140.2 (+3.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -0.6 (+2.6) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -0.4 (+1.6) | 142.8 (+1.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#87) | 4.5 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#125) | 1.51 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#112) | 1.87 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#197) | 0.566 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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