Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -133 NMSU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -3.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -2.7 (+14.3) | 136.1 (+16.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -3.9 (+13.1) | 133.6 (+19.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -3.9 (+13.1) | 135.5 (+17.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -4.4 (+12.6) | 139.1 (+13.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | NMSU 57 – 45 UCI |
| Nov 12, 2023 | UCI 91 – 74 NMSU |
| Nov 10, 2021 | NMSU 62 – 51 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 2-16 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#36) | 7.0 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#82) | 1.68 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#75) | 3.69 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#84) | 0.667 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 42.1% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 81.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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