Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
UC Irvine Anteaters
45 57
FINAL Neutral Cancun Challenge
New Mexico State Aggies
Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya (Neutral) · November 26, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UCI -2.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCI win
Actual NMSU +12 102 Lost
Massey NMSU -2.4 (-9.6)
Massey Totals 145.0 (-43.0)
Bradley-Terry 5%
Weighted B-T 3%
Efficiency Plus ML NMSU -1.3 (-10.7) 139.5 (-37.5) 49%
Baseline Tuned ML NMSU -0.6 (-11.4) 140.2 (-38.2) 44%
Baseline ML NMSU -0.7 (-11.3) 137.7 (-35.7) 52%
Baseline Plus ML NMSU -0.6 (-11.4) 135.6 (-33.6) 52%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 12, 2023 UCI 9174 NMSU
Nov 27, 2022 UCI 8568 NMSU
Nov 10, 2021 NMSU 6251 UCI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCI NMSU
Overall 23-12 16-16
Conference 15-5 8-12
Home 12-5 10-5
Away 7-5 3-8
Neutral 4-2 3-3
Last 5 1-3 2-0
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 74.2 73.9
Avg Pts Against 69.4 73.8
Massey -0.6 (#188) 1.8 (#137)
Bradley-Terry -1.05 (#267) 1.85 (#57)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.59 (#213) 2.92 (#60)
RPI 0.475 (#214) 0.735 (#2)
Shooting & Four Factors UCI NMSU
FG% 40.0% 47.8%
3PT% 28.6% 35.4%
REB / G 39.5 36.0
OREB / G 11.0 10.5
AST / TO 1.21 2.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.8% 55.3%
TOV% 14.8% 11.1%
ORB% 26.8% 31.3%
FT Rate 29.6% 28.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.2% 47.8%
Opp TOV% 16.8% 12.3%
DRB% 65.1% 72.9%
Opp FT Rate 16.7% 26.1%

Game Analysis

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