Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +12 | 102 | Lost |
| Massey | NMSU -2.4 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-43.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -3.0 (-9.0) | 139.1 (-37.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -2.6 (-9.4) | 138.8 (-36.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.3 (-9.7) | 140.1 (-38.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.3 (-9.7) | 140.3 (-38.3) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2023 | UCI 91 – 74 NMSU |
| Nov 27, 2022 | UCI 85 – 68 NMSU |
| Nov 10, 2021 | NMSU 62 – 51 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#188) | 1.8 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#267) | 1.85 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#213) | 2.92 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#214) | 0.735 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 2.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 11.1% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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