Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UND +220 CSUF -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -0.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -2.9 (+18.9) | 146.4 (-16.4) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -0.4 (+15.6) | 145.6 (-15.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -1.1 (+14.9) | 147.1 (-17.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.1 (+15.9) | 148.8 (-18.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | CSUF 64 – 54 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#311) | -1.2 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#268) | 0.57 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#287) | 0.66 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#280) | 0.532 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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